Asian Institute of Management, Makati City
The Asia Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, Inc. (APPFI) in partnership with the Asian Institute of Management (AIM) ASEAN 2015 Project, organized the first of a series of High-Level Consultation Workshops on the theme “Economic and Development Outlook for the Asian Century: The China Factor & Implications for the Philippines and ASEAN”. This was held on March 6, 2015 at the AIM.
The participants were a highly select group of Filipino thought leaders, including Dr. Jesus Estanislao (former Secretary of Finance and now with the Institute of Corporate Directors), Dr. Dante Canlas (former NEDA Secretary and professor at the UP School of Economics), Dr. Joseph Anthony Lim (Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University), Dr. Tereso Tullao (School of Economics, De La Salle University), Mr. Eduardo Pedrosa (Pacific Economic Cooperation Council- PECC), former Philippine Permanent Representative to ASEAN Dr. Wilfrido Villacorta, and Dr. Antoinette Raquiza, VP of APPFI. Dr. Federico Macaranas, Project Co-Director of the AIM ASEAN 2015 Project, facilitated the discussions.
Starting off with discussions on the impact of China’s rapid economic growth and its now slowing economic momentum, the participants were asked to focus on proposing concrete policies that would help the Philippines position itself better in relation to regional development trends. Dr. Macaranas proposed an analytical tool - the Shell Scenario Planning framework - to locate where the Philippines currently stands in terms of economic stagnancy or vibrancy on the one hand, and how the Philippines may feel the impact of China’s foreign policy behavior (whether as a responsible or revisionist power) on the other hand. As Dr Macaranas explained: “scenarios give us lenses that that help us see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgements and be more sensitive to uncertainties”. Since Shell first introduced scenario planning in 1965, the company has produced 34 rounds of global and long-term scenarios and updates, most famously preparing the company for the 1973 Arab Oil Crisis in 1971.
This program is part of a series of high-level experts’ discussions on the regional and global context of future Philippine economic and security policy. The next rounds on the economic and development outlook will feature participants from industry and government.